The U.S. government shutdown hit the market. Gold rose above US$3900 and hit a new high. U.S. stock futures and Japanese stocks fell.

Market risk aversion warmed up. U.S. stock index futures fell generally, Nasdaq futures fell 0.5%, and Nikkei 225 Index fell more than 1%. COMEX gold rose above US$3900 per ounce, setting a record high. The prices of the US dollar, US debt, and crude oil fluctuated little.
At 12 noon, the U.S. government will shut down again since 2019, and global financial markets are facing new uncertainties.
During the Asian trading session, U.S. stocks S & P 500 index futures and Nasdaq index futures both fell about 0.5%.
Risk aversion pushed COMEX gold above US$3900 per ounce, reaching a record high. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $3865 an ounce, again approaching the all-time high of $3,871.45 set on Tuesday.
The latest development is that the government will officially shut down after a deadline of midnight (23:59) on Tuesday. U.S. federal government agencies have begun to implement an "orderly shutdown" after Congress failed to pass a temporary appropriations bill.
One of the most immediate effects of the government shutdown will be the postponement of data such as the non-farm payrolls report due to be released on Friday, depriving investors and policymakers of a key indicator of the health of the economy. Affected by this, the market's expected probability of WAC-Reserve cutting interest rates in October has climbed to 96% from 90% a day ago.
The news of the U.S. government shutdown triggered a chain reaction in Asian markets, with risk aversion significantly rising. Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell 1% today after experiencing a strong rise in the previous quarter, and the TSE index also fell 1.69%. Australia'S S P/ASX200 index fell slightly by 0.4%.
However, Asian market performance did not fall across the board. South Korea's Kospi rose 0.7%, extending its 11.5% gain in the previous quarter. Data showed that South Korea's exports in September hit the fastest growth rate in 14 months, providing support for the market.
It is worth noting that China's A-share and Hong Kong stock markets were closed due to the National Day Mid-Autumn Festival holiday.
Against the backdrop of rising uncertainty, various types of assets performed differently. In addition to the strengthening of gold prices, the US dollar index remained stable at 97.84 after falling for three consecutive days. The U.S. dollar edged up 0.1% to 148.1 against the yen, as markets responded lackluster to a Bank of Japan survey showing corporate inflation expectations above the 2% target.
The U.S. Treasury market remained stable during Asian trading hours. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was flat at 4.150%.
In terms of commodities, oil prices have stabilized after falling for two consecutive days. Investors are weighing OPEC+'s plans to increase production next month and the prospect of a possible decline in U.S. crude oil inventories.
The "data vacuum" created by the U.S. government shutdown is forcing markets to reassess the Fed's policy outlook. With the non-farm payrolls report absent, investors may focus more on the later ADP national jobs report, which is expected to show a modest increase of 50,000 in private sector employment.
Kyle Rodda, senior analyst at Capital.com, pointed out that under normal circumstances, the government shutdown has little impact on the market. For example, during the shutdown in 2018-2019, which lasted for more than a month. But he added that the market currently faces two problems: the delayed release of key employment data and "President Trump's threat to permanently lay off workers, which could turn the government shutdown into a small labor market shock."
This uncertainty has significantly pushed up market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Futures market conditions show that in addition to the probability of a rate cut in October rising to 96%, the probability of another rate cut in December also reaches about 74%.
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