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Trump threatens to make a comeback. Will this incident trigger a repeat of April's stock market? Can the volatile bond market pattern be broken? What are the key nodes behind the escalation of the Sino-US game? Six securities firms, includingFounder Securities, Guohai Securities, Zheshang Securities, Galaxy Securities, China International Capital Corporation, and China Merchants Securities, quickly launched research articles to provide comments and interpretations.
Seller research institutions generally believe that market fluctuations caused by reciprocal tariffs in April this year will not "repeat yesterday", so there is no need to be overly pessimistic about equity assets. Judging from the operational recommendations, investors do not have to rush to take action when panic first appears. They can wait until the market panic has eased slightly and a counter-draw occurs, and then appropriately adjust their positions according to their own needs.
In terms of the bond market, some sellers 'research said that it is expected to usher in a relatively rare window of recovery in the short term. After the impact of the event or a trading opportunity, it is recommended to seize the opportunity to cut bonds and adjust positions.
There is a high probability that the stock market will not repeat the April shock
Many investors have likened the incident of "Trump's announcement that the United States plans to impose a 100% tariff on China" to the incident of "April 2 announcing a plan to impose a 10% tariff on the world." Both incidents have led to a general decline in global equity markets and a significant setback in asset prices such as crude oil. Therefore, investors generally question whether the current stock market will repeat the situation in April this year.
Zhang Chi, a fund manager who has joined Wantai Huarui Investment and former chief strategy officer ofGuojin Securities,wrote that "there is a high probability that it will not", and the short-term emotional impact this time will be much less than in April. The emotional impact caused by environmental differences this time can only be regarded as a "disturbance" in the upward channel, which is far less than the April impact; now China has a certain "confidence" and has begun to proactively counterattack, triggering a "turn"; Compared with April, this time, not only did it not encounter a "liquidity trap", but it is even in a global financial easing cycle, the impact of short-term emotions on its impact will naturally be much lower than the April level. Since April this year, the market has only experienced an "emotional shock", and since then, both the equity market and the bulk market have hit new highs.
At the same time, Zhang Chiwen also reminded investors to pay attention to the impact of "potential fundamental" shocks in the future.
Liu Gang Kevin, chief analyst of overseas and Hong Kong stock strategyat CICC,wrote that short-term fluctuations caused by emotions may be inevitable, but the market will also closely watch and see the progress of negotiations before November. If investors have lowered some positions, they can wait and see and choose abetter opportunity to intervene in the direction of high-quality prosperity at a lower cost. The Sino-US credit cycle may face another turning point. If investors have not lowered their positions, there may be no need to operate at the beginning when they are most panicked. They can wait until the panic has eased slightly and then withdraw, adjust appropriately as needed.
GalaxySecurities Research News pointed out that A-shares may now fluctuate slightly, with the upward trend unchanged, accompanied by a switch in market styles. The rising short-term uncertainty will reduce the market's risk appetite for China assets, and the large early profit orders will also cause investors to re-examine whether market pricing is reasonable. However, it is still optimistic about subsequent investment opportunities in the China market. First, Trump's TACO probability is high, and China's industrial and supply chains are highly resilient, which has limited actual impact on economic fundamentals; second, China's countercyclical policies still have a lot of room, and incremental reserve policies will be launched in a timely manner according to changes in the situation; Third, since the second quarter, the Chinese version of the "stabilization fund" has played a good role in stabilizing the market. If the stock market fluctuates greatly in the future, the market stabilization mechanism will once again play an important role.
Founder SecuritiesResearch News pointed out that this round of tariff conflicts may cause certain disruption to the market in the short term, but it will not change the characteristics of A shares and continue to be bullish in the medium and long term.
The learning effect of the market is strong. At present, the large probability of this round of conflict is less than that in April, while the short-term fluctuation of A shares in the conflict in April, followed by the improvement of Sino-US relations + the active bottom market of medium-and long-term funds, A shares out of the independent market. This round will focus on the progress of the follow-up Sino-US negotiations, especially the results of the APEC meeting at the end of October.
Maintain a positive attitude towards A-shares in the medium and long term. First, although external demand is under pressure in the short term, the economic trend remains unchanged. China companies will continue to maintain a global competitive advantage in the medium and long term. Global exports have an impact but are particularly resilient; Second, the steady improvement of the quality of listed companies has laid a solid micro foundation; Third, the continuous increase in dividend repurchases has improved investor returns; Fourth, the continuous inflow of patient capital will help the healthy development of the market, which is expected to bring more incremental funds to the subsequent A-share market.
China Merchants SecuritiesResearch News believes that against the background of rising short-term tariff risks, fluctuations in equity assets will be amplified. This adjustment of U.S. stocks is more similar to disturbance factors, with an adjustment expected to be adjusted by 10% to 20%. Currently, it is the early stage of the adjustment, and market risk appetite has declined. Gold still has allocation value; in the medium term, Trump has a high probability of withdrawing when it is good to prevent internal risks from getting out of control, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about equity assets.
Short-term or immediate trading opportunities in the bond market
Compare the tariff war launched by the United States in April this year, which led to a rapid decline in bond market interest rates. Will this incident lead to a similar situation in the bond market, thus breaking the recent volatile bond market pattern?
Guohai SecuritiesResearch News pointed out that referring to market performance in April this year, since Trump announced the imposition of additional tariffs on April 2, as of April 7, the yield of 10Y government bonds has dropped rapidly by 16BP. If this round of shocks triggers risk aversion in the market again, similar trading opportunities may reappear, which deserves investors 'attention. It should be noted that this tariff incident, as a short-term external shock, may not change the underlying logic of bond market transactions in the fourth quarter.
Zheshang Securitiesfixed income research reported that this market may be "similar but not similar" to the April market, seizing the opportunity to adjust positions after the impact of the event. Looking forward to the next stage, the short-term bond market will usher in a relatively rare opportunity to recover. Perhaps we should seize the opportunity to cut bonds and adjust positions to gradually shift the focus of allocation and trading from 30-year treasury bonds to 10-year treasury bonds. The general trend of the equity bull market may not end there. If there is a large adjustment at subsequent opening, it may mean a more cost-effective allocation point.
GalaxySecurities believes that bonds will be good in the short term and look at the policy mix in the medium term. In terms of exchange rate, the short-term Sino-US tariff game will become an important factor influencing the exchange rate. The fluctuation difference between the US dollar and the RMB exchange rate is 7.1-7.2.
On October 10, U.S. Eastern Time, the United States announced that it would impose a 100% tariff on China in response to China's export controls on rare earths and other related items, and implement export controls on all key software.
Why is the Sino-US game escalating again?The United States has imposed unreasonable sanctions on China's shipbuilding industry, and China has responded in a reciprocal manner.
On October 3, the United States announced that starting from October 14, it will impose a port service fee on ships owned or operated by China companies, ships of China nationality and ships made in China.
On October 9, China's Ministry of Commerce issued new regulations on rare earths to comprehensively upgrade export controls. In addition to rare earth raw ore, export licenses will be issued for magnets andsemiconductor materials containing ≥0.1% of China's heavy rare earth components. At the same time, rare earth mining, smelting, and permanent magnet manufacturing technologies and key equipment will be included in the control, and products for military use or potential military use will be subject to case-by-case approval.
On October 10, China's Ministry of Transport announced that starting from October 14, it would impose a "special port fee" of 400 yuan per net ton on American or US-controlled ships docking at China ports, and plans to increase it year by year to form a reciprocal countermeasure.
In addition, antitrust investigations were launched against some companies.
It is worth noting that although Sino-US trade frictions have generally eased down after the Sino-US Joint Statement in Geneva on May 12, the United States has again exerted pressure on China in some areas since September.
On September 8, the U.S. Strategic Metals Corporation (USSM) signed a memorandum of understanding with Pakistan to jointly develop rare earth and key mineral resource chains, including exploration, mineral processing and smelting.
On September 12, the U.S. Department of Commerce included 23 China companies includingFudan Microelectronicson the entity list to tighten technology exports in the fieldsof semiconductorsand AI.
In September, the United States imposed tariffs of 25 - 100% on China's electric vehicles,solarcells, furniture, heavy trucks and other fields, laying the groundwork for this game upgrade.
U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Friday as U.S. President Trump threatened to significantly increase tariffs, making investors worry about worsening international trade tensions.
Late at night on October 10, Beijing time, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively plunged. As of the close, the Dow fell 1.9%, down 2.73% this week; the Nasdaq fell 3.56%, down 2.53% this week; the S & P 500 Index fell 2.71%, down 2.43% this week. The Nasdaq index and the S & P 500 index hit their biggest one-day declines since April.
Among the segments, large U.S. stocks and technology stocks generally fell, withBroadcom falling nearly 6%,Tesla falling more than 5%,Amazon falling nearly 5%,Nvidia falling more than 4%,Apple and Meta falling more than 3%, andMicrosoft and Google falling more than 2%.Semiconductorand cryptocurrency concept stocks were among the top losers. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 6.32%, Circle fell more than 11%, Arm fell more than 9%, AMD,Qualcomm, and Coinbase fell more than 7%,Kolei fell more than 6%,Micron Technology fell more than 5%,Asmai fell more than 4%, andIntel fell more than 3%.
The NasdaqChina Golden Dragon Index closed down 6.1%, with a cumulative decline of 8.37% this week. Hot Chinese stocks generally fell.NIO andJinshanyun fell more than 10%,Beili fell more than 9%,Baidu,Alibaba, andXiaopeng Automobile fell more than 8%,Jingdong fell more than 6%,Pianduo fell more than 5%,iQiyi fell more than 4%, andIdeal Car fell more than 3%.
The Hong Kong stock and A-share futures markets also reacted simultaneously. The Hang Seng Index futures closed down 5% in overnight trading, and the FTSE A50 futures index closed down 4.26% in consecutive overnight trading.
Major European stock indexes fell sharply in late session. At the close, the European Stoxx 50 index fell 1.69%, the British FTSE 100 index fell 0.87%, the French CAC40 index fell 1.53%, the German DAX30 index fell 1.68%, and the FTSE Italy MIB index fell 1.74%.
WTI crude oil futures closed down 4.24% at US$58.90/barrel, a cumulative decline of 3.25%。Brent crude oil futures closed down 3.82% at US$62.73/barrel, a cumulative decline of 2.8% this week.
Bitcoin once plunged more than 13% in the day. According to information on the morning of October 11, Coinglass data showed that in the past 24 hours, more than US$19.141 billion in cryptocurrency contracts across the network have been sold, with 1.62 million people selling positions. Among them, multiple orders opened up US$16.686 billion, and short orders opened up US$2.455 billion. The largest single warehouse receipt occurred in Hyperliquid-ETH-USDT, worth US$203 million.
Market panic was also reflected in the volatility indicator. The VIX panic index surged by more than 31% that day, indicating that investors 'concerns about short-term market risks have increased significantly.
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