0919 Hot spot tracking: PX breaks down, focusing on oil price guidance

On Friday,PX's decline widened further from the previous day, falling nearly 3% during the day, hitting a two-month low. Judging from the influencing factors,crude oil prices have declined significantly in the past two days, and the PX cost side has collapsed downward. This week's EIA data shows that U.S. diesel watches need to continue to fall. Considering that the peak season demand is drawing to an end, U.S. demand still shows signs of weakening. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut was in line with market expectations, but Powell's speech was biased, and the stronger US dollar suppressed the trend of risky assets. OPEC+ has completed a plan to resume production of 2.2 million barrels per day, and will start to resume production with flexible allocation of production capacity of 1.66 million barrels per day in the future. There are still incremental expectations on the supply side. Therefore, although geopolitical conflicts have disturbed the market in stages, their impact is limited. Crude oil may return to weak fundamentals trading, weakening the cost support for downstream aromatic hydrocarbons.
Judging from the fundamentals of PX itself, as of last week, the domestic PX starting load was 87.8%, an increase of 4.1% from the previous period. Asia's PX starting load was 79%, up 2.5% from the previous period.Equipment changes: The load of CNOOC Huizhou's 2.45 million-ton PX unit dropped in August and recovered within a week; the maintenance of a 700,000-ton line at Fujia Dahua was postponed until mid-September. It is currently planned to take about a month for both lines to be restarted after the maintenance; Fuhai Chuang's 1.6 million-ton maintenance unit was restarted one after another on September 8; the load of SK's 1.3 million-ton PX unit fluctuated slightly during the week and has now recovered. PX supply has resumed, downstream TA maintenance is coming to an end, fundamentals are under pressure, coupled with the slow recovery of terminal demand, PX prices are expected to remain weak and volatile.
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