Don't be pessimistic! The market is turbulent, and brokers speak out! Re-discuss style switching

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[Related reading] Tariffs triggered fluctuations. Many securities firms interpreted that the stock market has a high probability that it will not repeat the April shock.  
Tariffs triggered market fluctuations. What was the trend of A-shares on Monday? Collective interpretation by major securities firms! It will not become a turning point in the market, and the upward trend of A-shares remains unchanged  
On October 10, the A-share market fluctuated, with the technology sector, which had a large increase in the previous period, bearing the brunt.
Subsequently, affected by expectations of escalating trade frictions, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell collectively. However, judging from the latest research and judgment of the Securities Research Institute, the logic for A-shares to be positive in the medium term is still there, so there is no need to be too pessimistic about this. In the fourth quarter, it is recommended to focus on style rebalancing, and there may be style switching.
"Compared with the adjustment on April 7, the current index center is higher, but the market learning effect is also accumulating. Stock price deduction patterns are similar, but the magnitude may be lower. After next week's pulse adjustment, don't be pessimistic." Fu Jingtao, chief analystof Shenwan HongyuanResearch A-share Strategy, believes that the reasons for this round of adjustment of technology leaders are mainly short-term point-like disturbances and the continuation of the problem that the medium-term upside space has not yet been opened since A-shares rested in early September.
Wang Kai, chief analyst of strategyat Guosen Securities,also believes that the logic of positive A-shares in the medium term remains unchanged. He said that for U.S. stocks, the impact of sentiment constitutes the main reason for this adjustment, and fundamentals and liquidity have not been affected. For A-shares, although the uncertainty of overseas trade has caused emotional disturbance, there are still optimistic prospects under policy hedging expectations.
Referring to the situation on April 7 this year, he said that although the three major A-share indices collectively suffered setbacks, they subsequently experienced half-year consecutive gains with the help of domestic monetary policy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which did not destroy the bull market atmosphere. The current policy outlook and easing environment have not changed, and policy efforts are still needed to reverse the path of depressed prices. The short-term disturbance of tariffs in October will not change the bull market opportunities for A-shares in the future and medium term.
Wei Jixing, chief analyst of Open Source Securities Strategy, clearly emphasized that "the bull market in China assets will not come to an abrupt end." He said that the panic shock on April 7 instead created the most cost-effective gold buying range during the year and became a starting signal for the market. The negotiations on this incident are more meaningful and essentially reflect China's strategic initiative in key resources such as rare earths, which may mean that the substantive impact of this impact will be less. Therefore, there was no knockout market in the previous round of shocks, and this time may continue. In terms of space, it is expected that there will still be room for market valuation to rise before the securitization rate doubles (that is, the total market value reaches GDP).
According to Zhang Yusheng, chief analystof Everbright SecuritiesStrategy, in the short term, the market may enter a stage of wide fluctuations. Currently, the profits of listed companies still need to stabilize, but data in some areas have improved. For example, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of total profits of industrial enterprises rebounded from January to August, and the year-on-year decline in PPI narrowed in August. Domestic exports may remain resilient in the future, and the sustainability of improvement in domestic demand may exceed expectations. It is expected that with policy support, A-share earnings in the fourth quarter are expected to recover slightly, adding new impetus to the market.
It should be noted that although the Securities Research Institute unanimously gave a lot of "reassurance" after hearing and asking questions, the differences between different research institutes have gradually become apparent when it comes to subsequent style research and judgment.
For example, Fu Jingtao emphasized that there is no basis for continuous adjustment of science and technology, and effective breakthroughs in the overall market still have to wait for technology to lead. On the one hand, the beta of overseas AI is still rising, and domestic AI is also constantly improving. On the other hand, before the spring of 2026, the pattern of the technology industry being more catalytic than pro-cyclical will remain unchanged. The long-term price of technology is indeed not as high as before, but the short-term price/performance ratio has improved. In addition, the market still maintains its basic popularity, with technology leaders adjusting, but the proportion of rising companies is not low.
Liao Jingchi, chief strategy officerof Zheshang SecuritiesResearch Institute, believes that after nearly two weeks of interpretation, big finance and cycles have shown obvious signs of rising, while the technological style has weakened. Coupled with the impact of external news, it is not ruled out that the market will "shift gears" in its current position., shifting the focus to big finance, pro-cyclical, dividends and other directions. Wang Kai also mentioned that the intensification of fluctuations in the second phase of the bull market is often accompanied by style switching. The two trading days after the holiday show that the Q4 style focuses on value. In the fourth quarter, attention will be paid to the rebalancing of styles and opportunities in traditional value sectors such as real estate, brokerage, and consumption.
Zhang Yusheng said that judging from the experience of the past four bull markets, when the market is in the process of turbulence, industries that performed well in the early stage will perform poorly most of the time. In the short term, high dividends and consumer sectors may be more worthy of investors 'attention. In the medium term, under the liquidity-driven market, TMT will likely become the main line in the medium term. This round may also be the case. If the market turns to fundamentals driven, considering that the current market may be in the medium term, advanced manufacturing deserves special attention.