Big dive! Sudden warning: "Black Swan"!

In recent days, as the Trump administration once again brandished the "tariff stick", the cryptocurrency market has suffered a cliff-like dive. Within 24 hours, more than US$19.3 billion in cryptocurrency positions were closed, and nearly 1.67 million traders broke positions. This became the largest liquidation event on record in the currency circle.
On October 12, cryptocurrency continued to dive. Bitcoin once again fell below the US$110,000 mark. Solana fell more than 7%. Ethereum, BNB, XRP, etc. followed suit. Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, more than 200,000 people have opened positions in the cryptocurrency market, with the amount of open positions reaching US$570 million, of which more than 70% were multiple positions.
Traders who had accurately predicted the collapse of cryptocurrencies in 2022 warned that the cryptocurrency market may be facing a new "black swan" event, and the downside risks remain significant.
After a major dive on the evening of October 10, the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has not yet stabilized. On October 12, cryptocurrencies led by Bitcoin continued to adjust. As of press time, Bitcoin reported $109,925 million, down nearly 3% in 24 hours, and Ethereum fell more than 3% to $3719. Other cryptocurrencies fell even more, with XRP down 4.83% and Solana down 7.32%, dogcoin fell more than 8%, and Ida fell 6.58%.
Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, US$570 million in cryptocurrency-wide contracts have been sold, with more than 206,000 people selling positions. Among them, multiple orders opened up US$420 million, and short orders opened up US$150 million. The largest single warehouse receipt occurred in Binance-ETHUSDT, worth US$11.5232 million.
On October 10, U.S. Eastern Time, Trump again issued a tariff threat, which caused risk aversion in the global market to heat up rapidly, and investors sold off their risky assets. Subsequently, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BNB plunged rapidly. Bitcoin once plunged straight from US$122,000 to US$103,900, a drop of nearly 15%; Ethereum, XRP, Ida, Dogcoin, etc. plunged more than 20% from high to low. Within 24 hours, the amount of open positions in cryptocurrency across the network reached US$19.3 billion, and nearly 1.67 million traders were forced to close their positions, of which multiple losses accounted for more than 85%.
However, just half an hour before Trump announced the tariff policy, a mysterious "giant whale" account opened huge short positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid. After the tariff policy was announced, the cryptocurrency plunged in response, and this "giant whale" account made a profit of nearly US$200 million in one day.
A popular online analytics account,@ mlmacX, said this was only made public on Hyperliquit, imagine what this "giant whale" account did in CEX or elsewhere. "I'm pretty sure this person played a huge role in what happened today."
The above incidents have also triggered market reflection: on the financial frontier of cryptocurrency, known as "decentralization", power and information seem to be being re-centralized in a more subtle and efficient way.
According to TheStreet, a trader who had accurately predicted the 2022 cryptocurrency collapse recently issued a warning that the cryptocurrency market may be facing a new "black swan" event. Traders using the pseudonym "King of Crypto" pointed out after this week's collapse in the cryptocurrency market that this may be just the beginning of disaster.
In a market analysis released on October 11, the trader who once became famous among retail investors for accurately predicting the collapse of the cryptocurrency market in 2022 warned that the October 10 plunge was "a precursor to the 'Black Swan' event." He pointed out that although altcoins have suffered a "historic collapse," several mainstream currencies "have not yet completed a deep correction."
The trader emphasized that although Bitcoin sticks to the US$100,000 mark, it is far from reaching the "fully adjusted range of US$60,000 to US$70,000," which means that "downside risks remain significant" before the market builds a solid bottom.
He also warned that there are "structural cracks" in traditional markets, which may trigger "short-term global turmoil" under certain conditions, shake people's confidence in the core system, and form a "reset before the new stage."In short, the new tariffs have caused global investors to panic about rising costs, sluggish trade and slowing economic growth, prompting funds to withdraw from risky assets such as cryptocurrencies and stocks and shift to safe-haven targets such as the US dollar and bonds.
In his short-term outlook, the trader predicted a "brief consolidation over the weekend" followed by a "further downturn" following the return of liquidity next week.
This "King of Crypto" is known for his pessimistic macro predictions. During the FTX crash in 2022, he accurately predicted that Bitcoin would fall to the range of US$13,000-US$14,000 and warned that the altcoin would encounter the "ultimate strangulation". These predictions were finally fulfilled.
It is noteworthy that recently, a large British trading platform issued a warning to some investors not to include cryptocurrencies in their investment portfolios.
According to reports, the UK's long-standing ban on retail investors from participating in cryptocurrency exchange-traded notes (ETNs) was lifted on October 8 this year. With the ban lifted, retail investors will be able to establish exposure to digital tokens through regulated exchanges, which is undoubtedly a "carnival" for investors looking to profit from loose cryptocurrency regulations.
However, the new rules triggered a quick warning from Hargreaves Lansdowne, the UK's largest retail trading platform, which urged UK retail investors to be cautious.The company said in a statement that its view is that Bitcoin does not belong to any asset class, and we do not believe that cryptocurrencies have characteristics that would allow them to be included in investment portfolios to achieve growth or earnings goals, and should not be used as a means to help clients achieve financial goals.
Hargreaves Lansdowne stated that for cryptocurrencies, performance analysis cannot be performed and that unlike other alternative asset classes, they have no intrinsic value in themselves. Although Bitcoin's long-term returns are generally positive, Bitcoin has also experienced multiple serious losses and is a highly volatile investment product-its risk is much higher than stocks or bonds.