This week's A-share market:(1) This week (October 9-October 10), the A-share market fluctuated greatly, with the All-A index falling 0.36%. The GEM index led the decline, with a decline of 3.86%. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.37%. On the first trading day after the holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3900-point integer mark. However, on the second trading day, the A-share market showed a significant correction, and the three major indices collectively closed down. (2) In terms of style, this week's decline in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (-0.51%) was slightly less than that of the China Securities 1000 (-0.54%); the stable style performed relatively well, up 2.58%. The cyclical style and financial style also recorded increases, while the growth style fell 1.78%. (3) From an industry perspective, the primary industry is divided between ups and downs, the non-ferrous metals sector is repeatedly active, while the TMT sector focuses on profit-taking.
Capital flow this week:(1) Trading activity in the A-share market has rebounded. The average daily turnover this week was 2.603 billion yuan, an increase of 415.286 billion yuan from last week; the average daily turnover rate was 2.1279%, an increase of 0.00 from last week.36 percentage points. (2) The average daily turnover of northbound funds this week was 347.322 billion yuan, an increase of 61.886 billion yuan from last week. As of Thursday, the balance between the two financial institutions was 2.445550 billion yuan, an increase of 51.434 billion yuan from last week. (3) According to statistics on the fund's establishment date, 4 new funds were established this week, with an issued share of 1.130 billion shares. Among them, there are 2 equity funds, with an issued share of 852 million, accounting for 75.44% of this week.
Valuation changes this week:The valuation of the All-A index PE (TTM) rose 0.05% to 22.47 times from last week, at the 91.69% quantile since 2010; the valuation of PB (LF) rose 0.02% to 1.83 times this week, at the 50.17% quantile since 2010. The all-A-share bond spread is 2.6045%, which is around the 3-year rolling average (3.372%)-1.64 times the standard deviation, and is at the quantile level of 46.14% since 2010.
Investment Outlook in the A-share Market:On the evening of October 10, the global financial market fell sharply across the board. The three major U.S. stock indexes fell, and China stocks were also affected. Judging from the news, Sino-US trade frictions have once again attracted market attention. Will this round of tariff shocks cause the A-share market to repeat the April 7 market this year? Our answer is no! First, the degree of impact on expectations has dropped significantly. Second, the policy market stabilization mechanism has been put in advance.Third, the market focuses on medium-and long-term policy expectations, and the A-share market will still be "dominated by me." In addition, the stock price adjustment on October 10 was not a long-term trend shift dominated by a single external factor, but a need for shock digestion after continuing to rise in the previous period. Therefore, we believe that there is a high probability that the market will not replicate the April 7 market. In the short term, the rising uncertainty of the external environment suppresses market risk appetite, combined with the pressure of profit-taking of some funds, which will intensify market volatility and increase differences among individual stocks. However, the core factors driving this round have not changed. Liquidity is expected to continue to improve. During the key window period of the 15th Five-Year Plan and the disclosure window period of the third quarterly report, we will focus on the new round of policy focus areas and sectors with strong performance certainty.
Allocation opportunities:Under the impact of tariffs, pay attention to investment opportunities in non-ferrous metals (precious metals, industrial metals, small metals), agriculture, and energy industries. (1) Anti-corruption: During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the anti-corruption policy will remain continuous and be further deepened on the existing basis. (2) Theme of new quality productivity: Technology companies that comply with national strategies and have real technical barriers will be an important main line of A-share investment. In the short term, we will focus on low-level compensation sectors, and in the medium and long-term focus on breakthroughs in industrial trends. (3) Large consumer sector: The further implementation of the policy of expanding domestic demand is expected to drive the market upward. With the coordinated efforts of both supply and demand sides, a new wave of consumption is booming.(4)"Two major" areas: Accelerating the construction of major engineering projects in many places will promote the improvement and development of the industrial chain.
The risk of uncertainty about the effect of domestic policies; the risk of disturbance by geographical factors; the risk of unstable market sentiment.
This week (October 9-October 10, 2025, Monday to Wednesday closed due to a two-day holiday, the same below), the A-share market fluctuated greatly, closing down overall, with the All A Index falling 0.36%. The GEM index led the decline, with a decline of 3.86%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell 2.85%. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.37%. During the week, the market fluctuated widely. On the first trading day after the holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3900-point integer mark, setting a new high since August 2015. However, on the second trading day after the holiday, the A-share market showed a significant correction, and the three major indexes collectively closed down, and the hot sectors in the early period adjusted.
In terms of style, there was no significant advantage in the large-cap style this week. The decline in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (-0.51%) was slightly less than that of the China Securities 1000 (-0.54%); the stable style performed relatively well, up 2.58%. The cyclical style and financial style also recorded an increase, with growth style and consumption style correcting back, especially the growth style falling 1.78%.
From an industry perspective, this week, the first-tier industry was divided between ups and downs. Under the logic of price increases, the non-ferrous metals sector was repeatedly active, while the TMT sector concentrated on profit-taking. Market differences have increased under lithium battery export controls, and the weight of power equipment has been frustrated. The three industries with the top gains this week were non-ferrous metals, coal, and steel, with increases of 4.44%, 4.41%, and 4.18% respectively. Media, electronics, and power equipment were among the top losers.
In terms of the performance of secondary industries, the top five industries with yields this week are coke II, gas II, industrial metals, cement, and small metals; the industries with lower yields are film and television theaters, batteries, games II, and home appliance parts II, tourism and scenic spots.
Compared with the two trading days before the festival, trading activity in the A-share market rebounded. The average daily turnover this week was 2.603 billion yuan, an increase of 415.286 billion yuan from the average daily turnover last week; the average daily turnover rate was 2.1279%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points from the average daily turnover rate last week.
The average daily turnover of northward funds this week was 347.322 billion yuan, up 61.886 billion yuan from last week's average daily turnover. As of Thursday, Oct. 9, margin balances and margin balances rose from the last trading day before the holiday. The balance between the two financing was 2445.55 billion yuan, up 51.434 billion yuan from last week. Among them, the balance of financing was 2429.215 billion yuan, up 50.871 billion yuan; the balance of securities lending was 16.335 billion yuan, up 563 million yuan.
According to statistics on the fund's establishment date, 4 new funds were established this week, with an issued share of 1.130 billion shares. Among them, there are 2 equity funds (including equity funds and hybrid funds), with an issue share of 852 million, accounting for 75.44% of this week.
According to statistics based on the listing date, as of October 11, the number of IPOs this week was 1, raising funds of 190 million yuan, and there was no refinancing.
The pressure on market capital outflows next week will increase compared with this week. This week, a total of 17 companies were lifted from the ban on restricted shares, with a total of 956 million shares lifted, with a total market value of 395.1.9 billion yuan; next week (October 13-October 19), a total of 40 companies are expected to lift the ban on restricted shares, with a total of 3.277 billion shares lifted. Based on the closing price on October 10, the total market value of the ban will be approximately 79.120 billion yuan.
As of October 10, the valuation of the All-A Index PE (TTM) increased by 0.05% to 22.47 times compared with last week, at the 91.69% quantile since 2010, at a historically high level; the valuation of the All-A Index PB (LF) rose by 0.02% to 1.83 times this week, at the 50.17% quantile since 2010, at the historical median level.
As of October 10, the yield on the 10-year treasury bond was 1.846%, down 1.45BP from last week; the active contract price of the 10-year treasury bond futures closed at 107.98 yuan, up 0.13% from last week. Based on this calculation, on October 10, the all-A-share bond spread was 2.6045%, which was around the three-year rolling average (3.372%)-1.64 times the standard deviation, and was at the quantile level of 46.14% since 2010.
From an industry perspective, among the 31 first-tier industries, 17 industries 'price-earnings ratios increased this week. As of October 10, judging from the valuation of price-to-earnings ratios, a total of 20 industries have valuations higher than the 50% quantile since 2010, and 9 industries have valuations in the 20%-50% quantile since 2010. The other 2 industries have valuations lower than the 20% quantile since 2010. Among them, the PE valuation quantiles of real estate, computers, and electronics are relatively high, at 99.95%, 95.77%, and 89.52% quantile level; the PE valuation quantiles of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, and non-bank finance are relatively low, at the quantiles of 7.81%, 17.64%, and 25.19% respectively since 2010.
On the evening of October 10, global financial markets fell sharply across the board. The three major U.S. stock indexes fell, and Chinese stocks were also affected. Behind this are multiple factors such as intensifying global trade frictions, the continued shutdown of the U.S. government, and the adjustment of some scientific and technological leaders. Judging from the news, Sino-US trade frictions have once again attracted market attention. On October 10, local time, Trump posted on social media saying that starting from November 1, a 100% tariff will be imposed on China, which is an additional increase on the basis of existing tariffs. At the same time, they will also implement export controls on all critical software on November 1. In previous weekly reports, we emphasized that we are concerned about the disturbance of Sino-US negotiations on the short-term structural market.
Will this round of tariff shocks cause the A-share market to repeat the April 7 market this year? Our answer is no!
First, the degree of impact on expectations has dropped significantly.On April 2, local time, U.S. President Trump signed two executive orders on so-called "reciprocal tariffs" at the White House, announcing that the United States would establish a 10%"minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners and impose higher tariffs on certain trading partners. According to documents on the White House's official website, the benchmark 10% tariff will take effect in the early morning of April 5, and other equivalent tariffs will take effect in the early morning of April 9. The sudden announcement of this tariff with a buffer period of only a few days caused an instant setback in global supply chain expectations and a sharp decline in global financial markets. Looking at this round, China has taken countermeasures in advance, including export controls on rare earth and lithium batteries, and charged special port fees on US ships. At the same time, Trump posted an article on social media this time. The effective date of November 1 forms a time window. There will still be the 2025 APEC meeting before the effective date, and the market may show a wait-and-see attitude.
Second, the policy market stabilization mechanism has been put in advance. Compared with the passive stability maintenance state in April, the current policy toolbox is richer. On April 8, China's version of the stabilization fund was launched, sending a strong signal to stabilize the stock market. At the same time, the space for insurance funds to enter the market has been further opened up, the long-term assessment mechanism has been implemented, the central bank's structural monetary policy tools have been optimized, and the layout of equity products has been accelerated under the public fund reform, providing support for the steady operation of the A-share market.
Third, the market focuses on medium-and long-term policy expectations. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held this month. As the market focuses on the "15th Five-Year Plan", expectations for internal policy dividends will effectively buffer the impact of external disturbances, and the A-share market will still be "dominated by me."
In addition, judging from the global market conditions on October 10, the decline in China's stocks was due to the transmission of global risk sentiment on the one hand, and profit-taking after the previous rise on the other. From an April low to a September high, the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index has risen 43%. This adjustment of China Stock Exchange is not a long-term trend shift dominated by a single external factor, but a need for shock digestion after continuing to rise in the previous period.
Therefore, we believe that there is a high probability that the market will not replicate the April 7 market. In the short term, the rising uncertainty of the external environment suppresses market risk appetite, combined with the pressure of profit-taking of some funds, which will intensify market volatility and increase differences among individual stocks. However, the core factors driving this round have not changed. Liquidity is expected to continue to improve, the relocation of resident deposits is still in its early stages, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut provides support for global liquidity. At the same time, it is currently in the superposition stage of two window periods, namely, the key window period of the 15th Five-Year Plan and the disclosure window period of the third quarterly report, focusing on the new round of policy focus areas and sectors with strong performance certainty.
In terms of allocation, under the impact of tariffs, attention will be paid to the non-ferrous metals industry (precious metals, industrial metals, and small metals) that has benefited from the logic of price increases, the agricultural industry that has benefited from the strategic status of food security and import substitution, and the energy industry that has been added to energy security policies.In terms of theme, we will focus on: (1) Anti-corruption: This round of anti-corruption is not only a resistance to disorderly competition and price wars, but also a development model change that is of great significance and far-reaching influence from a deeper perspective. Anti-corruption creates favorable conditions for the price level to gradually return to a reasonable range by promoting production capacity management and preventing vicious competition. At the same time, this process also forces companies to break out of the low-end competition trap and devote more energy to technology research and development, product innovation and quality upgrading. Looking forward to the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the anti-involution policy will remain continuous and be further deepened on the existing basis. (2) Theme of new quality productivity: In an environment of increasing external uncertainty, China's requirements for self-reliance and self-reliance in science and technology are gradually urgent. Investing in science and technology is equivalent to betting on national strategic security. Technology companies that comply with national strategies and have real technical barriers will be an important main line of A-share investment in the context of the 15th Five-Year Plan. In the short term, under the pressure of correction in overseas markets, the technology market will inevitably experience periodic shocks, focusing on the low-level sector to make up for gains, and focusing on breakthroughs in industrial trends in the medium and long term. (3) Large consumer sector: The further implementation of the policy of expanding domestic demand is expected to drive the consumer sector up. With the coordinated efforts of both supply and demand sides, a new wave of consumption is booming. (4)"Two major" areas: The construction of major engineering projects in many places is accelerating, driving the growth of infrastructure investment. The project construction will promote the improvement and development of relevant industrial chains and inject new impetus into economic growth.
The risk of uncertainty about the effect of domestic policies; the risk of disturbance by geographical factors; the risk of unstable market sentiment.
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