[Asphalt Weekly] Asphalt fundamentals are fading, focusing on support below the cost end

Market review:Asphalt pricesremained weak last week. During the holiday, cost-side support for oil prices weakened inside and outside markets, asphalt spot market transactions were flat, and disk prices were weak. Affected by Trump's radical remarks on Friday, oil prices plummeted and broke through a new low for the year, and asphalt prices fell sharply.
Short-term view: Unilateral:Weak shocks, focusingonsupport below the cost end. Fundamentally speaking, the demand for gold, September and silver in the 10th peak season is basically coming to an end, the operating rate has declined, the total inventory of the factory warehouse+social warehouse has accumulated, supply pressure has rebounded, and the fundamentals are flat. From a cost perspective,OPEC+production increases in the medium term will impact the center of oil prices, and the asphalt probability rate will move downward with the center of gravity.As short-term demand weakens and cumulative pressure increases, asphalt may maintain a volatile and weak pattern. Pay attention to the support position below the cost end.
Varietyarbitrage:Short-termBu-Brentcracking differences are cautious. Oilprices still face high volatility risks.