[Crude oil internal and external arbitrage tracking] SC monthly spread fell to negative areas, and internal and external price spreads were operating in a weak position

1)Price difference:October10, SC night marketdifference from January to Marchis-3.10yuan/barrel, converted to-0.43US dollars/ barrels;Brent's January-Marchspread isUS$0.63/barrel;WTI's January-Marchspread isUS$0.58 /bucket. SCNight Market-Brent's main contract is-0.26US $/barrel;SC Night trading-WTI's main contract isUS$3.45/barrel.
2)Arbitrage: ① Valuation: At2:30 am on October 10,the price of Brent 2512 was65.13 USD/barrel, theSC2601plate price is448.1yuan/barrel, and the theoretical price of theSC2601plate is calculated to be 464.1yuan/barrel, and the market valuation deviation of the day is-3.44%. Fromthe 7-day moving average valuation, the value is calculated as [-5%,0 ] In terms of the normal range, it is in the normal valuation. ② Profit:Calculatetheonshore profit of SC2601 plate to-13.27yuan/barrel, equivalent to-1.86 USD/barrel. ③Price difference:SC2601-Brent2512disk difference is+0.31USD/barrel, theoretical difference US$2.17/barrel, the disk price difference is lower than the theoretical price difference. (Note: Last weekBrentfirst behaviorwas 2512;SCfirst behavior was2601 ; whereMstands for currentOctober)
① Looking at the monthly difference,after China's National Day+Mid-Autumn Festival holidays last week, due to Trump's remarks on Friday, core assets such as stock markets, crude oil, and copper plunged by more than4%. Half a year later, the financial market once again faced the tsunami impact of the great power game. The monthly difference structure at home and abroad has weakened significantly, especially in the domesticSC The monthly difference has dropped to a negative range.
② In terms of internal and external price spreads, theSC-Brentcross-regional price spreads are still weak based on a7-day moving average(the rebound shown only shows that the SC holiday does not open, and statistics are based on pre-holiday data).After the peak consumption season, global oil demand lacked bright spots.Klpertracking data showedthatChina refinery inventories fell by 12 million barrels in the last weekof September, turning into a de-warehouse state. In addition, China 'simports in September were9.6million barrelsperday, a month-on-month decrease of1.2million barrelsperday, the lowest during the year. As time enters the fourth quarter, China's tight quotas for independent refineries have reduced imports, increased freight rates have weakened Western arbitrage, and may further rely on inventories in the future. Looking at it later,SC It isdirectly related to the impact of OPEC+ production increase in the Middle East. Currently, the fundamentals of supply and demand are still weak compared to the external market, and we still need to wait and see for the long price difference.
③In the short term,although Trump's actions over the weekend made investors aware of the contradictions in the game between major powers and the gradual reduction of interdependence in Sino-US relations is an irreversible trend, the market is currently generally expected to be in line withthe Thetariff war in April is similar and is expected to ease again after a short-term escalation. Judging from Trump's still expectations for meeting with China leaders at the end of the month, economic and trade frictions are still likely to recur. Subsequent factors such as the game between major powers at the geographical and macro levels will also continue to cause disturbances to the market. While the oil price center moves downward, it will continue to maintain high volatility characteristics and pay attention to the rhythm.